The Civilitary Theory
Examples of Civilitary Model I
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis
Examples of Civilitary Model III
Examples of Civilitary Model II
CivlilItary Model II: Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis
This group, which has allied itself with ISIL, has been operating in the Sinai Peninsula but is evolving as fragmentation and political upheaval roil Egypt. The background to its rise was a security vacuum in the area caused by the complex relationship between the local Bedouin population and the central state. Its territorial dimension stretches between the cities of Rafah, Sheikh Zuweid, and al-Arish. The escape and release of the group’s operatives from prison, where they were serving long terms for past activity, allowed it to fortify its ranks with loyal members who already had operational experience.
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis then quickly moved from I to II. The theory defines this stage as employing terrorism in the land under the group’s control and throughout nearby states. Over the following years, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis has been responsible for the majority of the most complex terrorist attacks in the Sinai Peninsula. It bombed military checkpoints and local governorates , in addition to carrying out numerous attacks on Sinai’s energy pipeline, which exports gas to Israel and Jordan.
After President Morsi’s ouster, the situation in the Sinai Peninsula deteriorated and Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis began to expand its targets, striking locations in Egypt’s mainland. Terrorist attacks were planned and executed around the Suez Canal, the Nile Delta region, the Cairo district and the Libyan cross-border, followed by attempts to assassinate Egyptian Interior Minister Mohammed Ibrahim.
In line with Model II, this group also terrorizes civilians in nearby states. For example, the group claimed responsibility for several rocket attacks on the southern Israeli city of Eilat, and also killed one solder and injured another in a September 2012 attack on an Israeli border patrol. With respect to the third criterion of Model II, there is no available information to suggest that members of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis facilitate terrorist attacks around the world.
In an effort to crack down on the organization, Egyptian leadership has modified its national security strategy. Similar to ISIL, Boko Haram, the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas, members of Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis also face the threat of airstrikes, undertaken, in this case, by the Egyptian Air Force. Attacks by Egyptian helicopters play an important role in the Egyptian air campaign against terrorism.
The military campaign against Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis continues as of this writing. The territorial terrorist group has turned more aggressive and executed more terrorist attacks on Egyptian soil and the Egypt has increased its pressure on the organization.
In November 2015, the group claimed credit for a terrorist attack that brought down Russian airliner over Egypt, killing all 224 people on board. At this stage, the territorial terrorist group has yet to acquire significant terroballistic capabilities and ascivilate these terrorist capabilities among civilians. It should be noted that the group operates from the desert, which does not have, in general, many densely populated residential cities. On the other hand, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis has already demonstrated its ability to shoot missiles from Sinai into Israel. This development might indicate the possibility that it will shoot more missiles against Israel or against Egypt in future. In the meantime, however, Ansar is categorized as a Model II organization.
CivlilItary Model II
The Houthis in Yemen
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